Toncoin (TON), linked to the Telegram ecosystem, struggles to gain traction in the current market. Despite a slight 1% increase over the past week, this uptick merely reflects broader market trends. The altcoin has not attracted significant demand from whales or retail investors, raising concerns about its future performance.
Current Market Dynamics
Currently, Toncoin trades at $5.33, just below a critical resistance level of $5.35. Analysts warn that if the trend continues, Toncoin could experience a substantial price drop of approximately 17%. This decline may bring the price down to $4.44, a level not seen since September 6.
Lack of Interest from Toncoin Investors
Investor sentiment also plays a crucial role in Toncoin’s performance. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio indicates that the altcoin has become undervalued recently. As of now, the 30-day and 90-day MVRV ratios stand at -0.26% and -5.38%, respectively. Although negative MVRV ratios typically signal a buying opportunity, they have not motivated investors to accumulate more tokens.
Furthermore, large holders’ activity raises red flags for Toncoin’s stability. Recently, netflow from large holders—those holding over 0.1% of the circulating supply—plummeted by 115%. This decline suggests that whales are offloading their holdings, which signals bearish sentiment in the market.
Short-Term Holders Reduce Holdings
Short-term holders (STHs) also contribute to the uncertainty surrounding Toncoin. These investors usually hold assets for less than 30 days and have reduced their holding periods by 7% over the last month. This reduction often indicates decreased demand and can lead to further downward pressure on prices as these investors may sell to lock in profits or minimize losses.
Price Prediction and Future Outlook
Given these dynamics, analysts remain cautious about Toncoin’s short-term outlook. If selling pressure continues from both large holders and short-term investors, Toncoin may struggle to break through its resistance level of $5.35. Consequently, failing to surpass this barrier could trigger a decline, potentially reaching as low as $4.44.
However, if market sentiment improves and demand for Toncoin rises, it could break through the resistance level and rally toward $6.81. Investors should closely monitor large holder activities and overall market sentiment as these factors will significantly impact Toncoin’s future price trajectory.